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[This has nothing to do with terrorist financing and everything to do with money flows, privacy and control of populations inside the US and abroad. It seems to me that the long night of fascism is coming very rapidly now as the sunset and twilight of liberty in the US dissolves into darkness. – MCR]
Europeans Berate Bank Group and Overseer for U.S. Access to Data
By DAN BILEFSKY
Octover 4, 2006International Herald Tribune
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/05/world/europe
/05swift.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
BRUSSELS, Oct. 4 — European Union legislators lashed out Wednesday at a banking consortium and one of its key supervisors, the European Central Bank, which acknowledged that it had known for years that the consortium was giving confidential banking records to United States authorities.
Last week, the Belgian privacy commission accused the consortium, called Swift, for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, of flouting European data protection rules by allowing analysts from the Central Intelligence Agency and officials from other United States agencies to search millions of confidential financial transactions for possible terrorist financing activity.
An investigation by the privacy commission concluded that Swift had breached European privacy rules, calling the secret transfer of confidential information “a gross miscalculation.” A separate European Union group is investigating whether Swift, which is based in Belgium, violated European banking law and is considering whether an independent auditor should be appointed to prevent privacy abuses.
In a heated parliamentary hearing, lawmakers said Swift and its overseers had ignored privacy rules by not telling the European Union or European citizens of the transfers.
Several called on Swift to move its United States operations to Canada to prevent the United States from breaching European civil liberties. Others wanted to know why they had learned of the transfers from a report in The New York Times on June 23 rather than from the European Central Bank, which knew of them as early as June 2002. But the lawmakers took no immediate action.
“What we have seen is a culture clash between Europe and the U.S., in which the Americans think they can do whatever they want in the fight against terror,” said Sophie in ’t Veld, a Dutch legislator and advocate of civil liberties. “The European Central Bank and other European institutions that oversee Swift are partly responsible for failing to have informed European citizens when they learned about the transfers.”
But the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, said that such powers were beyond the authority of his bank or of European national banks. “We made it clear orally and in writing to Swift that we had absolutely no competence and of course it was up to them to take their own actions and decisions,” he said of Swift’s notice to the bank that it had received subpoenas for the data from the United States.
“We gave no blessing to Swift to comply with U.S. subpoenas,” he said. “But the E.C.B. has no authority to supervise Swift with regard to compliance with data protection laws.”
His view was echoed by Peter Praet, president of the National Bank of Belgium, which leads an oversight group for Swift that includes the E.C.B., the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. He said the National Bank had concluded that the transfers were outside its competence because they posed no threat to financial stability, which is the bank’s main responsibility.
Mr. Trichet said the Swift affair had underlined the need for common rules on how to reconcile protecting data and fighting terrorism.
Under European law, companies are forbidden to transfer confidential personal data to another country unless that country offers adequate protections. The European Union does not consider the United States to be a country that offers sufficient legal protections for individual data.
But the lawmakers said Swift was in a legal quagmire because of confusion over which rules to obey.
[Any move away from the dollar in today’s geo-political landscape is significant. A new oil bourse in Shanghai and two announced to be coming in Tehran and Moscow will all undermine the dollar. In this context, Venezuela calling for a regional Latin American bank and currency as Hugo Chavez declares that now is a bad time to hold dollars has raised eyebrows in the West. – MK]
Goldman Sachs Says Venezuela May Sell More Dollars, Issue Bond
By Guillermo Parra-Bernal
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=akiK.D.Jug7k&refer=news
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela may step up its sales of the U.S. dollar at the official exchange rate and sell dollar- denominated bonds in the local market in a bid to halt a weakening of the currency in street trading, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
The bolivar has weakened in street trading to about 3,000 bolivars per dollar from about 2,500 in June, driving up the cost of some imports, Alberto Ramos, a Latin American economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a report. The official exchange rate - - the rate at which the government sells dollars to people and companies -- is 2,147.3 bolivars to the dollar.
To contact the reporter on this story: Guillermo Parra-Bernal in Caracas at at gparra@bloomberg.net
VENEZUELA RULES OUT RETURN OF ITS DIPLOMATE TO ISRAEL
BNA.bh
October 4, 2006
http://english.bna.bh/?ID=51065
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
CARACAS, OCT. 4 (BNA) VENEZUELA RULED OUT THE RETURN OF ITS CHARGE DE AFFAIR TO ISRAEL AFTER BEING SUMMONED LAST AUGUST FOLLOWING DIRECTIVES OF VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ IN PROTEST TO THE ISRAELI ATTACK ON LEBANON.
THE VENEZUELAN FOREIGN SPEAKER SAID THE CIRCUMSTANCES THAT CALLED TO RECALL THE DIPLOMATE DID NOT CHANGE. HE ADDED THAT THE ISRAELI ATTACK ON LEBANON WAS VERY CRUEL AND AGAINST ALL INTERNATIONAL RESOLUTIONS. EM 04-OCT-2006 10:10
[Excellent analysis from Chris Puplava on why El Nino will likely mean more draw downs on natural gas inventories this winter, not less. Natural gas shortages are a certainty this winter if the cold forces demand to rise enough. There are some curtailment plans in place and a war game was run last year in preparation for a “cold weather event day,” but no rationing plan has been announced as the markets and profits are valued over people.
As the mainstream media says natural gas storage is at “above average levels” and that El Nino means a “milder” winter, we are reminded once again that the mainstream is way too comfortable with sound bites to be relied upon. – MK]
Natural Gas Inventories and Possible El Niño Winter Analysis
Chris Puplava
September 19, 2006
FinancialSense.com
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
On September 19th AccuWeather released its Preliminary Winter Outlook. Their chief long-range forecaster is predicting a much different coming winter than what we experienced last year. They are calling for an El Niño that will lead to a mild start and then a colder ending than normal.
"While temperatures in the Northeast will start out warmer than normal, a shift to colder weather during the final two months of winter will result in slightly below normal temperatures for the three-month period. This will lead to consumers needing more heating oil or natural gas than they did during last year's exceptionally mild winter," said AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast Operations Ken Reeves. "Chicago, which is dependent on natural gas heat, experienced relatively warm winters the past few years, and we expect this pattern to change this year. The last time we had an El Niño--the winter of 2002-2003--Chicago had to contend with slightly colder-than-average temperatures."
Winter weather for the East Coast will show more precipitation and colder temperatures while El Niño winters lead to a large high-pressure system that develops over the Rockies, which keeps conditions relatively dryer and warmer than normal.
After reading the preliminary forecast for this winter I wanted to look at current natural gas inventories and compare them to historical ranges and analyze what occurred during the previous El Niño of the 2002-2003 winter and its affect on natural gas inventories and the commodity price.
I reviewed natural gas inventories from 2002-2006 to determine various patterns and averaged inventories for each month since 2002. I then plotted the average inventory level for each month along with two standard deviations above and below the average. Approximately 95% of the average inventory levels should fall within the range of two standard deviations from the average. Values outside this range represent extreme values and are statistically significant.
As shown below, peak inventories are reached in November with the trough in the winter draw down occurring in April. A few key points I want to point out. There is not much variability between the maximum and minimum inventory levels from September to December. Greater ranges between the maximum and minimum inventory levels are seen from January to May, which is the peak of the winter season. The divergences in maximum and minimum inventory levels result from the severity of the winter season. For example, last year’s mild winter (starting from January 2006) is plotted below in RED, which happens to be above the average since 2002.
The 2002-2003 El Niño lead to colder temperatures and a greater drawdown in inventories. The El Nino pattern leads to colder/wetter conditions in the East and warmer/drier conditions in the West; this is significant for two reasons. First, El Niño’s result in colder temperatures is in regions that make up the greatest percentage of the national draw down in inventories (East) and warmer temperatures in the regions that make up the smallest percentage of national draw down in inventories (West). The East on average (2002-2006) represents 67% of the national drawdown and the West accounts for only 11%. This means that the colder temperatures in the East will have a significant impact on inventories while the warmer temperatures in the West are not that significant when comparing their percent of the national draw down in inventories relative to the East.
Moreover, both the East and the Producing Regions (Mid-West to East Coast) experience a greater percentage in the drawdown of their inventories. For example, the average winter drawdown since 2002 in Eastern natural gas inventories is 67% from Peak levels in November and 46% for producing regions. In the 2002-2003 El Niño, the winter draw downs for the Eastern and Producing Regions were 83% and 75% respectively, a large increase from an average winter drawdown. Nationally, the average is a 59% decline while the last El Nino saw a national draw down of 77% from November levels. (The tables and charts are given below.)
If we do in fact have an El Niño winter pattern develop this winter that has similar affects as the 2002-2003 one, it will significantly affect inventory levels despite the fact that we are currently above “average levels.” What I want to focus on is not the “average levels” but compare where inventories are now compared to what they were in 2002 as the El Niño set in. Looking at the chart below, the 05-06 season in RED begins from September 2005 (left) and ends in September 2006 (right). The 2002-2003 season in BLUE starts from September 2002 and ends in September 2003. Looking at the September 2006 levels (far right, RED) at just above 3000 bcf is only slightly above the September 2002 levels (far left, BLUE) that were slightly below 3000 bcf. See chart below.
The point here is that though analysts keep touting that we are above “AVERAGE LEVELS” for natural gas inventories, we are at “COMPARABLE LEVELS” to the beginning of the 2002-2003 El Niño which saw a huge draw down in natural gas inventories as seen by comparing the 02-03 and the 05-06 paths above in Figure 2.
The El Niño of 02-03 lead to a large draw down in natural gas inventories and the price of natural gas jumped from a low in September of 2002 at $3.13 to a high of $9.14 in February of 2003, a jump of more than 192% (Figure 3). This is a far larger move in natural gas compared to the 2005-2006 season, which saw a bottom in natural gas in September of $10.65 to a peak in December of $15.48, a 45% gain (Figure 4).
With natural gas futures currently trading below $6 mmbtu and with Henry Hub spot natural gas trading at $4.03 mmbtu, natural gas companies may experience a lift this coming winter if the forecasted El Niño plays out this winter. Last year it was the hurricanes that drove natural gas prices higher while this year Mother Nature may come in another form to send the commodity higher. Time will tell.
Today’s Market
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBA) released their weekly mortgage applications survey which showed mortgage demand increased last week, as purchase applications rose strongly (up 7.6%) and refinance applications surged (up 17.5%). Falling interest rates have lead to a rebound in mortgage applications as the fixed rate mortgage (FRM) has fallen 62 basis points since late June while the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) has fallen 55 basis points. Falling interest rates lead to a 3.3% increase in the MBA purchase index for September, the largest monthly increase since March of 2005. However, Moody’s Economy.com expects the housing market to remain in a weakened state over the course of the next year as stated in their report, “Housing at the Tipping Point: The Outlook for the U.S. Residential Real Estate Market.” Moody’s Economy.com expects existing home sales to continue to trend down through the fourth quarter of 2007, with new home sales bottoming soon afterward. Meanwhile, refinance activity is likely to stabilize with interest rates in the near term.
"The housing market downturn is in full swing," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com. "To date, the housing downturn has been generally orderly and is characterized best as a correction and not a crash. Whether the housing correction unravels into a crash will largely depend on the secondary or indirect effects from the housing downturn."
Those effects include the impact of the downturn on the job market, on consumer spending via the housing wealth effect, on lending institutions, and on the global financial system as mortgage credit quality weakens, Zandi said.
"The larger these effects, the more serious the blow to the broader economy, which, in turn, will reverberate back onto the housing market," said Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com.
The unwinding of the long housing boom began in the summer of 2005 has become more dramatic with the departure from the market of the "flipper," the so-called buyers who intend to re-sell their properties quickly at a profit. "All of this has seemingly occurred overnight," Zandi said.
In other economic news, factory orders were unchanged in August relative to July, which was better than expected as economists were forecasting a 0.2% decline. Both durable and nondurable goods were unchanged last month while inventories posted a 0.4% increase.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their non-manufacturing report for September, which showed business activity slowed sharply, with the business activity index falling 4.1 points to 52.9, a greater plunge than analysts were expecting. The index is now at its lowest point since April of 2003, although the prices paid index report was encouraging, which fell to 56.7 from 72.4 in August.
Despite the lackluster economic news the markets continued their march upwards as the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke the 11,800 mark rising to 11,850.61, finishing near the high of the day. A surprise rise in crude inventories and news that Saudi Arabia said it wanted to keep oil prices lower helped lift the markets.
All of the broad market indices were up, with the DJIA posting a triple digit gain of 123.27 points to close at 11,850.61. The S&P 500 was up 16.11 points to close at 1350.22, and the NASDAQ was also up, rising 47.30 points to close at 2290.95. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell to 4.565%, and the dollar index posted a small gain on the day, rising 0.12 points to close at 85.83.
Overseas markets were mostly up except for the Nikkei which was down 0.98%. The big movers were Brazil’s Bovespa and Mexico’s Bolsa posting gains of 3.60% and 2.20% respectively. France's CAC-40, Germany’s DAX Index, and London’s FTSE 100 were all up, rising 0.70%, 0.90%, and 0.50%.
All ten S&P 500 sectors were up on the day with energy starting off initially down on inventory data before reversing course and finishing as one of the strongest sectors at the close. The largest gain came from the technology sector up 1.96%, followed by energy and consumer discretionary, up 1.54% and 1.45% respectively. The weakest sectors on the day were materials and utilities, up 0.17% and 0.42%.
Chris Puplava
© 2006 Chris Puplava
Puplava Financial Services, Inc.
[This is the second time this pipeline has been sabotaged within six weeks. As Mike Ruppert recently noted in an internal FTW communication:
“The Kurds are positioning themselves for a breakup of Iraq and they’ll get a bigger piece of the pie if they hold a gas pipeline to Turkey’s head.” – MK]
Explosion shuts down natural gas pipeline from Iran to Turkey
September 29, 2006
The Associated Press
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/09/29/africa
/ME_GEN_Iran_Turkey_Pipeline_Explosion.php
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
TEHRAN, Iran An explosion on a natural gas pipeline outside an Iranian border city has halted the flow of gas to Turkey, Iranian authorities said Friday.
The governor of Maku, a town in western Iran near the Turkish border, Safar Aseri, said the fire broke out at 11:30 p.m. Thursday (2000GMT) and was extinquished an hour later, state-run radio reported Friday.
Aseri was quoted as saying the cause of the explosion was under investigation. But officials at the Iranian Embassy in Ankara said they believed the explosion was an act of sabotage by separatist Kurdish rebels who are active on both sides of the Iran-Turkey border.
The explosion occurred near the Iranian border city of Bazargan, sparking a huge fire, Aseri said.
He added that the explosion occurred five kilometers inside the Iranian border. But the private Turkish Dogan news agency quoted Turkish truckers as saying they could hear ambulances and fire engines rushing to the blast site was about 1 kilometer (half a mile) east of the Gurbulak border crossing.
Turkey's state pipeline company, Botas, said the explosion cut gas flow from Iran to Turkey and that it would likely be three to four days before repairs could be done.
The Iranian Embassy said Turkey gets about half of its gas supplies from Iran, but Botas said it did not expect any shortages. The company said the cut in Iranian gas would be compensated by supplies from Russia, which are brought in by way of the Blue Stream pipeline underneath the Black Sea.
There had earlier been confusion over which side of the border the explosion occurred on, with Iranian state media initially saying the explosion was in Turkey.
Last month, Kurdish guerrillas belonging to the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, blew up part of the same pipeline in the Turkish city of Agri, shutting down the flow of gas for four days.
The rebels are active on both sides of the border and have sabotaged pipelines in the past as part of their struggle for an autonomous homeland. More than 37,000 people have been killed in Turkey since the rebels took up arms in 1984.
Turkey has been importing natural gas from Iran through the 2,580-kilometer (1,600-mile) pipeline since 2001. Botas officials said Turkey imports 20-22 million cubic meters of natural gas per day from Iran.
Turkish and Iranian officials are reportedly discussing expanding the pipeline for exports to Europe.
____
Associated Press Writer Benjamin Harvey contributed to this report from Istanbul, Turkey.
[Perfect time for China to start hoarding oil – right as oil prices dip to temporarily low positions. – MK]
China starts filling strategic oil reserve
October 6, 2006
Associated Press
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM
.20061006.wchinaoil1006/BNStory/Business/home
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
BEIJING — China has started filling the tanks of a strategic oil reserve meant to insulate the country from disruptions in supplies, an official said Friday.
The tanks in Zhenhai, a city in the coastal province of Zhejiang, south of Shanghai, are being filled with domestically produced oil, said Xu Dingming, deputy director of the Cabinet's State Energy Office.
Mr. Xu didn't say how much oil had been pumped into the tanks or when the process was to be completed.
“All of the construction work (in Zhenhai) has been completed,” Mr. Xu told Dow Jones Newswires at an energy conference. “Since the storage facility has been built, it must be put into operation as soon as possible
The Zhenhai facility, with 16 massive oil tanks, is one of four planned sites for petroleum reserves. The others are to be built next year and in 2008.
Previous reports said Beijing plans to stockpile up to 100 million barrels of petroleum, or the equivalent of almost a month's national consumption.
The United States operates a similar reserve.
China supplied its own oil for decades from domestic oil fields, but became a net importer in the 1990s. Driven by a booming economy, it has quickly risen to become the world's third-biggest oil importer, after Japan and the United States.
Mr. Xu's agency was created this year to co-ordinate energy policy and supervise state-owned oil companies and other resources.
[While the Bush administration continues to paint a delusional, rosy picture of the U.S. economy five weeks before the Congressional elections, realists are looking at the impact of volatile energy prices, a tanking housing market, and rising interests rates, and their picture isn't pretty at all. While the administration is successfully putting many Americans in a trance, FTW readers are wide awake. – CB]
CEOs take dim view of U.S. economy
Study reveals more are pessimistic about economy in next 6 months; see 2007 growth of 2 percent to 3 percent.
October, 5 2006
Reuters
http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/05/news/economy
/ceos_economy.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006100510
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
IRVING, Texas (Reuters) -- More top U.S. chief executive officers believe the economy is going to deteriorate over the next six months than expect improvement, according to a study of 70 top CEOs released Thursday.
A joint study by the Business Council and the Conference Board found that 45.6 percent of top CEOs forecast economic conditions to get worse over the next six months, while 41.2 percent believe conditions will improve. That marks the first time in the survey's two-year history that the largest segment of respondents expected conditions to deteriorate and is a sharp increase from the 16 percent of respondents in February who saw conditions worsening.
"Results ... show increased caution about the U.S. and global economies and concern about profit growth," Kenneth Chenault, vice chairman of the group and chairman and CEO of American Express Co., wrote in a preface to the study.
The findings suggest that volatile energy prices, rising interest rates and cooling U.S. housing market of the past year are beginning to take a toll on business.
The survey found that 71.4 percent of CEOs expect the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 2.1 percent to 3 percent next year, with 24.3 percent expecting growth of 2 percent or less.
"Two to three percent (GDP) growth is actually not only quite acceptable but maybe in the long run has a better probability of being sustained than something else," said Clayton Jones, chairman, president and chief executive officer of cockpit electronics maker Rockwell Collins Inc.
Oil prices - which affect companies directly through the cost of energy to run factories as well as influencing consumer spending through gasoline prices - have fluctuated widely over the past year, with U.S. oil futures hitting an eight-month low of $57.45 per barrel Wednesday, down from a record high above $78 in July. The recent decline in oil prices could be short-lived, though, as officials from oil-producing countries have begun to talk about cutting production.
The Federal Open Market Committee this summer took a break from a campaign of 17 consecutive interest rate hikes that lifted the benchmark federal funds target rate to 5.25 percent and again in a meeting last month decided to hold rates steady, saying inflation risks should abate as economic growth slows.
The survey found CEOs were particularly cautious about prospects in their own industries, with only 14 percent of respondents expecting conditions in the sectors they compete in to improve over the next six months, down from the more than 40 percent that expected improvement in their sectors in February.
In a sign they are preparing their companies for a slowing economy, some 38 percent of CEOs surveyed said they expect cost cutting to be key to future profits and more than 80 percent said they expect the pace of new hiring to remain stable or to slow.
While volatile energy prices and rising interest rates have commonly been cited as headwinds to profit growth over the past year, the CEOs surveyed said they don't see either rising much further. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they expect energy prices to move somewhat lower over the next six months, while about three-quarters said they expect the Fed funds rate to remain between 5 percent and 5.5 percent over that time frame.
The Business Council is a group of 200 top U.S. chief executive officers that counts among its members the top executives at companies including General Electric Co. (down $0.10 to $36.00, Charts), American Express Co. (down $0.25 to $56.31, Charts) and Johnson & Johnson (down $0.41 to $65.42, Charts). Some of its members are meeting today in this suburb of Dallas.
[The first Bi-national Congress of Small Farmers of Mexico and the US comes as Mexico faces the prospect of privatization in their energy sector, and the Mexican left plans protest. – MK]
Mexican Farmers Hurt by NAFTA
October 1, 2006
Presna Latina
http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID={3715689A-20
3F-4D90-ABAB-0BE6C01CE83D})&language=EN
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
Mexico, Oct 1 (Prensa Latina) Mexican farmers demanded the cancellation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) chapter on agriculture, in order for the agricultural producers to survive.
The demand was announced at the closing ceremony of the First Binational Congress of Farmers and Small Farmers of Mexico and the United States.
Attendants to the meeting discussed the problem that has plunged Mexican farmers into a serious crisis, due to the interests of the agro-industry and export transnational corporations.
The principle of unity among small farmers from both sides of the border and the need to achieve fair trade among producers, respecting the neighboring markets´ feasibility, prevailed during the discussions.
In this point, there was opposition to the free trade agreements that facilitate and legalize the invasion of products under production costs, favoring the large agro-industrial corporations at the same time.
They recalled that a total opening of Mexican and US markets to agricultural products will be completed by January 2008, worsening the farmers crisis for both sides.
In consequence, there will be a displacement of thousands of farmers and indigenous people from their places of origin, and US family farming producers will almost disappear, generating an increase of migration among Mexicans.
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Europeans Berate Bank Group and Overseer for U.S. Access - By DAN BILEFSKY